Kirkuk is the Heart Beat of Kurdistan as was described by the widely known Kurdish leader Barzani Mustafa It is a deeply rooted Iraqi City as the Arabs say; on the other hand, it is unquestionably a Turkmanian city according to the Turkmans, while it is a city which was built upon the ruins of an Assyrian city according to the Assyrians & Christians in general. So here, Kirkuk finds itself as lost among all this fussing which seems having no end in sight.
On 1927, oil automatically surged out with great power at a place near Kirkuk called (Baba Gurgur) which was exploited by the Iraqi Oil Company on a regular basis on 1934. The oil reserves at Kirkuk fields are estimated to be more than (10 Billion) barrels at a production rate of between (750 thousands to 1 million) barrels per day.
Kirkuk is inhabited by a homogeneous mixture of different nationalities of Kurds, Arabs, Turkmanians, Assyrians, Chaldeans & Armenians. It was known from the past for its nationalities harmony, but this was altered since the eighties of the last century. The former Iraqi government led by Saddam Hussien forced the Kurds & Turkmanians out of their villages & dwellings as a part of a deliberate & systematic policy called (Arabization).
For many years, Kirkuk was considered like a crucible where all nationalities melted in. This has become somewhat like a nightmare after the downfall of the former Iraqi Regime (led by Saddam Hussein); here now, the different nationalities, in Kirkuk, struggle to ascertain its historical rights. As such, the Kurds, from their side, try to add Kirkuk to Iraqi Kurdistan Region, while the Turkmans & Arabs want to maintain it within the central Iraqi government in Baghdad. These differences were, sometimes, expressed by violence, other times, through politics.
On (11/3/1970), an Autonomy agreement was signed between the Iraqi government & Barzani Mustafa; the government recognized the Kurds national aspirations while giving assurances for the Kurds participation in the Iraqi government, besides using the Kurdish Language in the educational system. However, no concrete agreement was reached on Kirkuk which continued as a pending matter.
The first municipalities elections were held in Kirkuk under the supervision of (Paul Bremer) on 24/5/2003 to choose Kirkuks Province Municipality Council. Here, the American Forces chose (300) members for the Kurds, Arabs, Turkmanians & Assyrians as an election committee which elected (30) city council members; this step was taken to cool down the racial tensions. The American Forces decided to grant the (Four Sects), the same number of seats in the new Council!! The council consisted of (30) members; twenty four seats were divided equally between the Four Sects, while the Americans assigned (6) independents. Today, the Kirkuk Province Council has expanded (in its second session) to (41) members.
Kirkuk, as described by many, is like a microscopic Iraq. It is actually as such, in addition to the various Iraqi communities, one can find members of Madayans Sect along with followers of the Yezidi Religion. The Arabs & Turkmans are, horizontally, divided to Sunnites & Shiites; the Sunnites are further divided into many congregations & sects, and so are the Shiites. No one knows where would this Mosaic Divisions reach.
In this survey, which we conducted in absolute neutrality & in an accurate scientific methods - it included (1000) individuals of different ages, classes, sects, minorities & nationalities (Kurdish, Turkmans, Childo-Assyurians, Arabs & others), of both sexes from (5) Provinces (Erbil, Sulaimaniya, Kirkuk, Duhok & Mosul) - we tried to read the view of the Kurdish street on the Kirkuk case, that seems to have deeply affected the political process in Iraq for many years. We worked seriously to try to understand the nature of such a (View), also the reasons behind it, as a humble effort, from our side, to crystallize a clear understanding for this historical problem.
01- Is Kirkuk a sacred city?
Yes: 49.7%
No: 46.2%
I don't know: 04.1%
02- Is Kirkuk more important than any other Iraqi city?
Yes: 41.8%
No: 43.7%
I don't know: 14.5%
03- Can it be said that Kirkuk is widely a Kurdish city?
Yes: 50.9%
No: 47.4%
I don't know: 01.7%
04- Can it be said that Kirkuk is widely an Arabic city?
Yes: 33.7%
No: 58.2%
I don't know: 08.1%
05- Can it be said that Kirkuk is widely a Turkman city?
Yes: 42.4%
No: 47.5%
I don't know: 10.1%
06- Do the Kurdish Parties sincerely work for the benefit of Kirkuk?
Yes: 35.8%
No: 33.3%
I don't know: 30.9%
07- Are the Kurdish leaders extreme in their demands for Kirkuk?
Yes: 44.9%
No: 42.2%
I don't know: 12.9%
08- Do the Kurdish parties exploit the Kirkuk case for their narrow interests?
Yes: 50.2%
No: 31.1%
I don't know: 18.7%
09- Would the Kurdish parties have insisted on its demands for Kirkuk if this city was not an oil rich city?
Yes: 37.9%
No: 49.2%
I don't know: 12.9%
10- Would the Peshmarga Forces fight if Kurdistan decided to take over Kirkuk by force?
Yes: 48.8%
No: 39.1%
I don't know: 12.1%
11- Would Kirkuk be economically better if it joined the Kurdistan Region?
Yes: 53.3%
No: 21.4%
I don't know: 25.3%
12- Would Kirkuk be more secure if it joined the Kurdistan Region?
Yes: 57.1%
No: 32.2%
I don't know: 10.7%
13- Were the Kurds hurt much – along their history, because of their insistence on adding Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Region?
Yes: 58.9%
No: 31.7%
I don't know: 09.4%
14- Does Kirkuk worth all these Kurdish sacrifices?
Yes: 36.5%
No: 38.3%
I don't know: 25.2%
15- Would most Kirkuk citizens decide to join Kurdistan Region if surveyed?
Yes: 44.6%
No: 43.1%
I don't know: 12.3%
16- Would most Kirkuk citizens decide to join Baghdad if surveyed?
Yes: 41.7%
No: 40.1%
I don't know: 18.2%
17- Would most Kirkuk citizens decide on forming their own Region if surveyed?
Yes: 57.7%
No: 32.4%
I don't know: 09.9%
18- Is it better for Kirkuk to be a Region by itself following the center in Baghdad?
Yes: 52.6%
No: 10.7%
I don't know: 36.7%
19- Would Baghdad one day step down on Kirkuk for the Kurds?
Yes: 35.5%
No: 32.6%
I don't know: 31.9%
20- Would the regional countries agree on adding Kirkuk to Kurdistan Region?
Yes: 15.3%
No: 64.9%
I don't know: 19.8%
21- Would the United States agree on adding Kirkuk to Kurdistan Region?
Yes: 20.5%
No: 20.7%
I don't know: 58.8%
22- Would you agree on dividing Kirkuk between the Iraqi nationalities?
Yes: 49.7%
No: 31.2%
I don't know: 19.1%
23- Would the Kirkuk case be pending for more long years?
Yes: 52.1%
No: 37.2%
I don't know: 10.7%
24- Is it humane to drive away the new comers from Kirkuk after all the years they spent in it?
Yes: 31.3%
No: 58.4%
I don't know: 10.3%
25- Is it better to internationalize the Kirkuk issue & present it to the International Court of Justice to decide?
Yes: 67.9%
No: 30.2%
I don't know: 01.9%
Although the vast press machine has been working several years ago trying to stamp Kirkuk city with holiness by all their efforts, the poll revealed a deep dispute over the holiness issue of Kirkuk (49.7%) of the participants in that poll proved that Kirkuk is a holy city whereas (46.2%) of them opposed the existence of this feature in Kirkuk province, and this dispute remained between the two groups with regard to the significance of this city (41.8%) of the participants in this poll agreed that there is no other Iraqi city more important than Kirkuk whereas (43.7%) of them rejected this poll, perhaps it would be a clear signal to the existence of a strong and competitive stream build their thoughts on the basis that all Iraqi cities as same as any important city despite the existence of the oil asset in some of them like Kirkuk and non-existence of this asset in others such as the most Iraqi cities.
his poll revealed that the competition and the circulating conflict between the major three ethnics in Iraq over Kirkuk and its relation are still carried on and burning. (50.9%) of the participants in the poll proved that Kirkuk is overwhelmingly Kurdish city, whereas (47.4%) of them refused this opinion, and (33.7%) of them proved that Kirkuk is overwhelmingly Arabic stamped, and (42.4%) of them said that it is Turkmen stamped. This is a clear indication to the existence of the deadly conflict between those three ethnicities which seems to continue for a longer period of time!!.
This poll revealed the existence of a drastic dispute between the mediums of the Kurdish street towards the Kurdish political parties` fulfillment to Kirkuk issue as the percentages of the supporters, doubtful people, and confused group came to be approached as a clear signal to the distrust by the Kurdish street if we added the confused percent to doubtful group which may reach (64.2%) regarding the Kurdish political parties` intentions towards Kirkuk. This dispute is more intensified form with regard to the question of the range of extremism of the Kurdish leadership in their way to demand Kirkuk city (44.9%) of the participants in the poll confirmed that the Kurdish political leadership is immoderate whereas (42.2%) confirmed the contrary.
In spite of all that the Kurdish political parties came to be doubted by most of the participants in the poll. (50.2%) proved that these political parties exploit Kirkuk issue for their own narrow interests, and it was increasingly getting worst in term of Kirkuk oil as (49.2%) of the participants in the poll proved that the Kurdish political parties were not insisting on their claim of Kirkuk unless Kirkuk is not oil city as a clear indication to existing firm thought of almost the Kurdish that the genuine motivation behind Kurds claim of Kirkuk as well as Arabs and Turkmen might do, is a bare economic motivation!! Nevertheless, (48.8%) of the participants in the poll believed that Kurdish military forces (peshmarga forces) will be fighting when Kurdish leadership determined to take back Kirkuk by force, but we do not have to forget that a large percent of those reached (39.1%) believed in the contrary.
The poll revealed that a large percentage of the Kurdish street reached (53.3%) believe that Kirkuk circumstances from the economic point of view would be improved if it had been annexed to Kurdistan region, perhaps that result from the security enhanced if Kirkuk is annexed to Kurdistan Region which can positively influence the trade and economic movement in general according to (57.1%) of the participants in the poll who believe in that.
It was expected somehow that (58.9%) of the participants in the poll believe that Kurds have been devastated during that course of history because of their insistence to annex Kirkuk to Kurdistan Region whilst most of the observers of Iraqi matter along the contemporary history of Iraq agree on this fact, but the surprise was that when (38.3%) thought that Kirkuk does not actually deserve all those sacrifices made by Kurds for Kirkuk!! As a clear signal to the existing percentage of disagreed for the repeated scenario of Kurds` failure in achieving the national interests each time due to Kirkuk and the determination of each party of the conflict to annex Kirkuk for themselves.
The poll revealed there is enormous dispute among the Kurdish street mediums towards the decision taken by Kirkuk citizens regarding joining Kurdistan Region. Meanwhile (44.6%) of the participants in this poll thought that those people who will determine to annex their own city to Kurdistan region, meanwhile (43.1%) believed that they do not decide that. This dispute remained at the same level regarding Kirkuk citizens determination to annex Baghdad in case of performing the poll (40.1%) of the participants in this poll confirmed that Kirkuk people will decide to annex their province with the central government of Baghdad whereas (41.7%) on the contrary, but the big surprise revealed by that poll was that (57.7%) of the participants believed that Kirkuk people will prefer to establish their own federation in Kirkuk in case of poll performed as a clear indication to Kirkuk individuals fears of annexing Kirkuk to any region because there will be no guarantees to protect their rights to control the giant oil assets laid under their own lands. Probably that was the reason behind the belief of (52.6%) of the participants in this poll that it is preferable for Kirkuk to be self – ruled region and follow the central government in Baghdad as same as any other region in Iraq.
Despite entering Iraq in (democracy stage) since 2003, the poll revealed that the Kurdish street still distrust the Iraqi politicians in Baghdad; therefore, this political street had been divided into three nearly equal groupings the percentage of the believers that Baghdad will give up Kirkuk for the interest of Kurds who rejected to support that odd and those who stood confused came to be closed to each other strongly, but it had changed largely regarding the question of the regional neighboring countries stands from Kirkuk annex to Kurdistan Region, where (64.9%) of the participants in this poll proved that those states will not agree to annex Kirkuk to Kurdistan as an obvious indication to the awareness of the Kurdish street of those countries` stand from Kirkuk issue and its destiny, but this agreement has not remained as it is regarding USA attitude of Kirkuk annex issue to Kurdistan/Iraq. This poll revealed that the Kurdish street is not aware of the American stand!! As (58.8%) proved that they do not know whether Washington would accept this kind of annex or will refuse it!! As a clear indicator to non- existing clear American official attitude towards Kirkuk issue!!.
This poll revealed that the Kurdish street actually got tired of Kirkuk issue and want this problematic issue to be ended in one way or another as (49.7%) of the majority of the participants agreed on dividing Kirkuk among the Iraqi ethnicities and terminate this stuck problem at last. According to (52.1%) of them think that this problem will remain suspended for many other long years which will make so many people worried.
This poll revealed the Kurdish street tendency towards the human tendency and their punctuality for not persuing improper policy which has been practiced against the native Kurdish and Turkmen inhabitants of Kirkuk. Hence (58.4%) of the participants in this poll believe that it is inhuman behavior to evacuate the new comers to Kirkuk after all those many long years of dwelling in Kirkuk; however, it seems that the political street distrust the politicians proceedings from all the ethnicities in Iraq, perhaps that this political street might believe that those politicians will resort to all the methods whatever anti human being rights to implement their policies regarding gaining control of Kirkuk, so that (67.9%) of the participants proved that they prefer to internationalize Kirkuk issue and put it in front of the International Court of Justice for judgment, as this step in accordance with this poll guarantee non – exposing every Iraqi whatever nationality had, to the enforced evacuation or terrorizing, on the other side ensuring honorable and compulsory end for the various groupings of this problem which were the main reason behind numerous conflicts and wars which fractured Iraq back.
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